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Red or Black? The Gambler's Illusion on Online Roulette Red or Black? The Gambler's Illusion on Online Roulette

Red or Black? The Gambler’s Illusion on Online Roulette

American or European, the Roulette wheel has standard green, red and black pockets. To choose and land the pocket you’ve picked is dependent on luck. The American Roulette has two green pockets, while the European has one. Because the odds are stacked against the player, most don’t choose the green pockets. They often opt for the numbered red or black Roulette.

Red or Black? The Gambler's Illusion on Online Roulette

Red or Black Roulette – What’s the Illusion?

Players are made to believe in a false idea that’s propagated by casino owners: that if one colour appears severally in past spins, the other is more likely to appear in subsequent spins. Casino owners know too well that displaying the statistics of past spins plays into the mind of players who mistakenly use them as a prediction for upcoming numbers.

To fully grasp that this is nothing more than an assumption, players need to understand two terms: a series of events and a unique event. These, as explained in the article, lays bare the falsehood.

Unique Event in a Game of Roulette

A unique event is a standalone event that isn’t in any way affected by past events. It is also known as a random trial and is the case with a spin in Roulette. Assuming the green-coloured zero isn’t taken into consideration, an event in Roulette can yield one of two results: red or black colour. Each spin is unique. It is not influenced by past spins which led to the coinage of the phrase, “Roulette has no memory.”

The probability of landing on a red or black Roulette is fixed. It doesn’t change with subsequent spins even if the results were different. For example, the ball might land on a colour twenty times in a row. It won’t affect the twenty-first spin.

To be more detailed, when playing the French Roulette, the probability of landing either the red or black Roulette is 48.65%= 18/37. To get to this figure, we simply divide the total pockets of a given colour by the summation of the 18 red pockets to the 18 black ones and the green one. You will quickly conclude that both colours have an equal probability. However, this is paradoxical since reality isn’t similar to what mathematical projections project. The reason is that Roulette is a game of chance.

Series of Events to Consider

In a series of events, past events influence subsequent ones. Here, the probability is determined by multiplying unique/individual probabilities. The probability of a red or black Roulette appearing in a single event is 18/37. This doesn’t change in subsequent spins. However, if we want to determine the probability of the same colour appearing in three consecutive spins, then the rules change. You simply multiply the unique spins three times in a row: 18/37 ˟ 18/37 ˟ 18/37 = 11.51%. The probability lowers in each subsequent spin. For example, the probability of landing a black 15 times in a row becomes (18/37)15.

The notion that colours must change after a streak of a particular one is a falsehood based on speculation rather than facts. Remember, each Roulette spin is a unique event that isn’t influenced by past spins.

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Red or Black? The Gambler’s Illusion on Online Roulette
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Post Name : Red or Black? The Gambler’s Illusion on Online Roulette

Posted On : 04/04/2019

Author : Cameron Riddell